Snotwatch COVID-Toes: An ecological study of chilblains and COVID-19 diagnoses in Victoria, Australia.

Abstract

Background The COVID-19 pandemic has caused widespread illness with varying clinical manifestations. One less-commonly-reported presentation of COVID-19 infection is chilblain-like lesions. Aims We conducted an ecological analysis of chilblain presentations in comparison with confirmed and suspected COVID-19 infections in a primary care setting to establish that a relationship exists between the two. Study Design Our study collated data from three Primary Health Networks across Victoria, Australia, from 2017-2021, to understand patterns of chilblain presentations prior to and throughout the pandemic. Using a zero-inflated negative binomial regression analysis, we estimated the relationship between local minimum temperature, COVID-19 infections and the frequency of chilblain presentations. Results We found a 5.72 risk ratio of chilblain incidence in relation to COVID-19 infections and a 3.23 risk ratio associated with suspected COVID-19 infections. COVID-19 infections were also more strongly associated with chilblain presentations in 0-16-year-olds throughout the pandemic in Victoria. Conclusion Our study statistically demonstrates that chilblains are significantly associated with COVID-19 infections in a primary care setting. This has major implications for clinicians aiming to diagnose COVID-19 infections or determine the cause of a presentation of chilblains. Additionally, we demonstrate the utility of large-scale primary care data and its potential application to monitoring the spread of COVID-19 infections across the state, supporting current epidemiological efforts for COVID-19 tracking.Copyright The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY 4.0 International license.