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https://repository.monashhealth.org/monashhealthjspui/handle/1/27393| Title: | Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. | Authors: | Alhabib S.;Lipshultz S.E.;Wilkinson J.D.;Simard E.P.;Liu Y.;Phillips M.R.;Xiao Q.;Lo L.;Logroscino G.;Lunevicius R.;Ma S.;Machado V.M.;Mackay M.T.;Magdy Abd El Razek H.;Magdy Abd El Razek M.;Mandisarisa J.;Mangalam S.;Marcenes W.;Meaney P.A.;Margolis D.J.;Silberberg D.H.;Martin G.R.;Martinez-Raga J.;Marzan M.B.;Mason-Jones A.J.;McMahon B.J.;Mehndiratta M.M.;Woldeyohannes S.M.;Tedla B.A.;Zeleke B.M.;Memiah P.;Memish Z.A.;Mendoza W.;Meretoja T.J.;Lallukka T.;Mhimbira F.A.;Micha R.;Mozaff D.;Shi P.;Singh G.M.;Miller T.R.;Mohammad K.A.;Mohammadi A.;Mohan V.;Mola G.L.D.;Monasta L.;Montico M.;Ronfani L.;Morawska L.;Werdecker A.;Mueller U.O.;Westerman R.;Musa K.I.;Paternina Caicedo A.J.;Seedat S.;Nagel G.;Rothenbacher D.;Naidoo K.S.;Sartorius B.;Naldi L.;Remuzzi G.;Nangia V.;Nash D.;Nejjari C.;Neupane S.;Newton C.R.;Ngalesoni F.N.;Ngirabega J.D.;Nguyen Q.L.;Nkamedjie Pete P.M.;Nomura M.;Nyakarahuka L.;Ogbo F.A.;Ohkubo T.;Olivares P.R.;Olusanya B.O.;Olusanya J.O.;Opio J.N.;Oren E.;Ortiz A.;Ota E.;Ozdemir R.;Mahesh P.A.;Pandian J.D.;Pant P.R.;Papachristou C.;Park E.;Park J.;Patten S.B.;Tonelli M.;Stokic Pejin L.;Pereira D.M.;Cortinovis M.;Giussani G.;Perico N.;Pesudovs K.;Pillay J.D.;Plass D.;Platts-Mills J.A.;Polinder S.;Pope C.A.;Qorbani M.;Rafay A.;Rana S.M.;Rahman M.;Rahman S.U.;Rai R.K.;Rajsic S.;Raju M.;Rakovac I.;Ranabhat C.L.;Rangaswamy T.;Ribeiro A.L.;Ricci S.;Roca A.;Rojas-Rueda D.;Roy N.K.;Ruhago G.M.;Sunguya B.F.;Saha S.;Sahathevan R.;Saleh M.M.;Sanabria J.R.;Sanchez-Nino M.D.;Sanchez-Riera L.;Sarmiento-Suarez R.;Sawhney M.;Schaub M.P.;Schneider I.J.C.;Silva D.A.S.;Schutte A.E.;Shaddick G.;Shaheen A.;Shahraz S.;Shaikh M.A.;Sharma R.;Shetty B.P.;Shin M.;Shiri R.;Sigfusdottir I.D.;Silveira D.G.A.;Silverberg J.I.;Yano Y.;Singh O.P.;Singh P.K.;Singh V.;Soneji S.;Soreide K.;Soriano J.B.;Sposato L.A.;Sreeramareddy C.T.;Stathopoulou V.;Stein M.B.;Stranges S.;Stroumpoulis K.;Swaminathan S.;Sykes B.L.;Tabares-Seisdedos R.;Tabb K.M.;Takala J.S.;Talongwa R.T.;Taye B.;Ten Have M.;Tuzcu E.M.;Thomson A.J.;Thurston G.D.;Topor-Madry R.;Topouzis F.;Towbin J.A.;Traebert J.;Truelsen T.;Trujillo U.;Uchendu U.S.;Ukwaja K.N.;Uthman O.A.;Van Dingenen R.;van Donkelaar A.;Vasankari T.;Vasconcelos A.M.N.;Venketasubramanian N.;Vidavalur R.;Violante F.S.;Vlassov V.V.;Wallin M.T.;Weichenthal S.;White R.A.;Williams H.C.;Wong J.Q.;Woolf A.D.;Xavier D.;Xu G.;Yakob B.;Yan L.L.;Yip P.;Yonemoto N.;Yonga G.;Younis M.Z.;Zaidi Z.;Zaki M.E.;Zannad F.;Zavala D.E.;Zeeb H.;Zonies D.;Zuhlke L.J.;Brown A. ;Brown J. ;Singh A. ;Thrift A.G. ;Wang L. ;Wang H.;Naghavi M.;Allen C.;Barber R.M.;Carter A.;Casey D.C.;Charlson F.J.;Chen A.Z.;Coates M.M.;Coggeshall M.;Dandona L.;Dicker D.J.;Erskine H.E.;Fitzmaurice C.;Foreman K.;Forouzanfar M.H.;Fraser M.S.;Fullman N.;Goldberg E.M.;Graetz N.;Haagsma J.A.;Hay S.I.;Huynh C.;Johnson C.O.;Kassebaum N.J.;Kulikoff X.R.;Kutz M.;Kyu H.H.;Larson H.J.;Leung J.;Lim S.S.;Lind M.;Lozano R.;Marquez N.;Mikesell J.;Mokdad A.H.;Mooney M.D.;Nguyen G.;Nsoesie E.;Pigott D.M.;Pinho C.;Roth G.A.;Sandar L.;Silpakit N.;Sligar A.;Sorensen R.J.D.;Stanaway J.;Steiner C.;Teeple S.;Thomas B.A.;Troeger C.;VanderZanden A.;Vollset S.E.;Wanga V.;Whiteford H.A.;Wolock T.;Zoeckler L.;Achoki T.;Afshin A.;Alexander L.T.;Anderson G.M.;Bell B.;Biryukov S.;Blore J.D.;Cercy K.;Chew A.;Cohen A.J.;Daoud F.;Dossou E.;Estep K.;Flaxman A.;Friedman J.;Frostad J.;Godwin W.W.;Hancock J.;Kemmer L.;Khalil I.A.;Liu P.Y.;Masiye F.;Millear A.;Mirarefin M.;Misganaw A.;Moradi-Lakeh M.;Morgan K.;Ng M.;Pain A.;Quame-Amaglo J.;Rao P.;Reitsma M.B.;Shackelford K.A.;Sur P.;Wagner J.A.;Vos T.;Lopez A.D.;Murray C.J.L.;Ellenbogen R.G.;Mock C.N.;Quistberg D.A.;Anderson B.O.;Blosser C.D.;Futran N.D.;Heckbert S.R.;Jensen P.N.;Montine T.J.;Tirschwell D.L.;Watkins D.A.;Bhutta Z.A.;Nisar M.I.;Akseer N.;Alam N.K.M.;Knibbs L.D.;Lalloo R.;Gouda H.N.;McGrath J.J.;Jeemon P.;Dandona R.;Kumar G.A.;Gething P.W.;Cooper C.;Darby S.C.;Deribew A.;Ali R.;Bennett D.A.;Jha V.;Rahimi K.;Kinfu Y.;Faghmous I.D.A.;Langan S.M.;McKee M.;Murthy G.V.S.;Pearce N.;Roberts B.;Campos-Nonato I.R.;Campuzano J.C.;Gomez-Dantes H.;Heredia-Pi I.B.;Mejia-Rodriguez F.;Montanez Hernandez J.C.;Montero P.;Rios Blancas M.J.;Servan-Mori E.E.;Villalpando S.;Duan L.;Liu S.;Ye P.;Liang X.;Yu S.;Mensah G.A.;Salomon J.A.;Thorne-Lyman A.L.;Ajala O.N.;Barnighausen T.;Ding E.L.;Farvid M.S.;Wagner G.R.;James P.;Osman M.;Shrime M.G.;Fitchett J.R.A.;Knudsen A.K.;Ellingsen C.L.;Krog N.H.;Savic M.;Hailu A.D.;Norheim O.F.;Abate K.H.;Gebrehiwot T.T.;Gebremedhin A.T.;Abbafati C.;Abbas K.M.;Abd-Allah F.;Abera S.F.;Alasfoor D.;Melaku Y.A.;Tesfay F.H.;Abyu G.Y.;Aregay A.F.;Betsu B.D.;Gebru A.A.;Hailu G.B.;Yalew A.Z.;Yebyo H.G.;Abreu D.M.X.;Franca E.B.;Abu-Raddad L.J.;Adelekan A.L.;Akinyemi R.O.;Ojelabi F.A.;Ademi Z.;Furst T.;Azzopardi P.;Cowie B.C.;Gibney K.B.;MacLachlan J.H.;Meretoja A.;Alam K.;Colquhoun S.M.;Patton G.C.;Weintraub R.G.;Szoeke C.E.I.;Vijayakumar L.;Bohensky M.A.;Taylor H.R.;Wijeratne T.;Adou A.K.;Adsuar J.C.;Afanvi K.A.;Agardh E.E.;Rehm J.;Badawi A.;Lindsay M.P.;Popova S.;Agarwal A.;Agrawal A.;Hotez P.J.;Ahmad Kiadaliri A.;Norrving B.;Akanda A.S.;Akinyemiju T.F.;Schwebel D.C.;Singh J.A.;Al Lami F.H.;Alabed S.;Al-Aly Z.;Driscoll T.R.;Leigh J.;Kemp A.H.;Aldhahri S.F.;Altirkawi K.A.;Terkawi A.S.;Aldridge R.W.;Banerjee A.;Tillmann T.;Alegretti M.A.;Aleman A.V.;Cavalleri F.;Colistro V.;Alemu Z.A.;Alkerwi A.;Alla F.;Allebeck P.;Carrero J.J.;Fereshtehnejad S.;Weiderpass E.;Havmoeller R.;Al-Raddadi R.;Alsharif U.;Alvarez Martin E.;Alvis-Guzman N.;Amare A.T.;Ciobanu L.G.;Tessema G.A.;Amegah A.K.;Kudom A.A.;Ameh E.A.;Amini H.;Karema C.K.;Ammar W.;Harb H.L.;Amrock S.M.;Andersen H.H.;Antonio C.A.T.;Faraon E.J.A.;Arnlov J.;Larsson A.;Arsic Arsenijevic V.S.;Barac A.;Artaman A.;Asayesh H.;Asghar R.J.;Atique S.;Avokpaho E.F.G.A.;Gankpe F.G.;Awasthi A.;Bacha U.;Bahit M.C.;Balakrishnan K.;Barker-Collo S.L.;Mohammed S.;Barregard L.;Petzold M.;Barrero L.H.;Basu A.;Basu S.;Bayou Y.T.;Bazargan-Hejazi S.;Beardsley J.;Bedi N.;Beghi E.;Deribe K.;Belay H.A.;Giref A.Z.;Haile D.;Jibat T.;Manamo W.A.A.;Tefera W.M.;Yirsaw B.D.;Sheth K.N.;Bell M.L.;Biroscak B.J.;Bello A.K.;Santos I.S.;Bensenor I.M.;Lotufo P.A.;Berhane A.;Wolfe C.D.A.;Bernabe E.;Beyene A.S.;Gishu M.D.;Bhala N.;Bhalla A.;Biadgilign S.;Bikbov B.;Bin Abdulhak A.A.;Bjertness E.;Htet A.S.;Bose D.;Bourne R.R.A.;Brainin M.;Brayne C.E.G.;Brazinova A.;Majdan M.;Shen J.;Breitborde N.J.K.;Brenner H.;Schottker B.;Brewer J.D.;Brugha T.S.;Buckle G.C.;Gosselin R.A.;Butt Z.A.;Calabria B.;Lal A.;Lucas R.M.;Degenhardt L.;Resnikoff S.;Carapetis J.R.;Cardenas R.;Carpenter D.O.;Castaneda-Orjuela C.A.;Castillo Rivas J.;Catala-Lopez F.;Cerda J.;Chen W.;Chiang P.P.;Chibalabala M.;Chibueze C.E.;Mori R.;Chimed-Ochir O.;Jiang Y.;Takahashi K.;Chisumpa V.H.;Mapoma C.C.;Choi J.J.;Chowdhury R.;Christensen H.;Christopher D.J.;Cirillo M.;Colomar M.;Cooper L.T.;Crump J.A.;Poulton R.G.;Damsere-Derry J.;Danawi H.;Refaat A.H.;Dargan P.I.;das Neves J.;Massano J.;Pedro J.M.;Davey G.;Davis A.C.;Greaves F.;Newton J.N.;Davitoiu D.V.;de Castro E.F.;de Jager P.;De D.;Dellavalle R.P.;Dharmaratne S.D.;Dhillon P.K.;Ganguly P.;Lal D.K.;Zodpey S.;Diaz-Torne C.;dos Santos K.P.B.;Dubey M.;Rahman M.H.U.;Duncan B.B.;Kieling C.;Schmidt M.I.;Elyazar I.;Endries A.Y.;Ermakov S.P.;Eshrati B.;Esteghamati A.;Hafezi-Nejad N.;Fahimi S.;Malekzadeh R.;Roshandel G.;Sepanlou S.G.;Farzadfar F.;Kasaeian A.;Parsaeian M.;Heydarpour P.;Rahimi-Movaghar V.;Sheikhbahaei S.;Yaseri M.;Farid T.A.;Khan A.R.;Farinha C.S.E.S.;Faro A.;Feigin V.L.;Te Ao B.J.;Fernandes J.G.;Fernandes J.C.;Fischer F.;Foigt N.;Shiue I.;Fowkes F.G.R.;Franklin R.C.;Piel F.B.;Majeed A.;Gall S.L.;Gambashidze K.;Gamkrelidze A.;Kereselidze M.;Shakh-Nazarova M.;Iyer V.J.;Gebre T.;Geleijnse J.M.;Gessner B.D.;Ghoshal A.G.;Gillum R.F.;Mehari A.;Gilmour S.;Inoue M.;Kawakami N.;Shibuya K.;Giroud M.;Glaser E.;Halasa Y.A.;Shepard D.S.;Undurraga E.A.;Gona P.;Goodridge A.;Gopalani S.V.;Gotay C.C.;Kissoon N.;Kopec J.A.;Murthy S.;Pourmalek F.;Goto A.;Gugnani H.C.;Gupta R.;Gupta V.;Gutierrez R.A.;Hamadeh R.R.;Hamidi S.;Handal A.J.;Hankey G.J.;Norman P.E.;Hao Y.;Harikrishnan S.;Haro J.M.;Hilderink H.B.;Hoek H.W.;Tura A.K.;Hogg R.S.;Horino M.;Horita N.;Hosgood H.D.;Hoy D.G.;Hsairi M.;Htike M.M.T.;Hu G.;Huang C.;Huang H.;Huiart L.;Husseini A.;Huybrechts I.;Huynh G.;Iburg K.M.;Innos K.;Jacobs T.A.;Jacobsen K.H.;Jahanmehr N.;Katibeh M.;Rajavi Z.;Jakovljevic M.B.;Javanbakht M.;Jayaraman S.P.;Jayatilleke A.U.;Prabhakaran D.;Jiang G.;Jimenez-Corona A.;Jonas J.B.;Joshi T.K.;Kabir Z.;Kamal R.;Kesavachandran C.N.;She J.;Shen Z.;Zhang H.;Kan H.;Kant S.;Karch A.;Karimkhani C.;Karletsos D.;Karthikeyan G.;Naik N.;Paul V.K.;Roy A.;Sagar R.;Satpathy M.;Tandon N.;Kaul A.;Kayibanda J.F.;Keiyoro P.N.;Lyons R.A.;Parry C.D.;Kengne A.P.;Matzopoulos R.;Wiysonge C.S.;Stein D.J.;Mayosi B.M.;Keren A.;Khader Y.S.;Khan E.A.;Khang Y.H.;Won S.;Khera S.;Tavakkoli M.;Khoja T.A.M.;Kim D.;Kim Y.J.;Kissela B.M.;Kokubo Y.;Kolte D.;McGarvey S.T.;Kosen S.;Koul P.A.;Koyanagi A.;Kuate Defo B.;Kucuk Bicer B.;Kuipers E.J.;Kulkarni V.S.;Kwan G.F.;Rao S.R.;Lam H.;Lam J.O.;Nachega J.B.;Tran B.X.;Lansingh V.C.;Laryea D.O.;Latif A.A.;Lawrynowicz A.E.B.;Levi M.;Li Y. | Institution: | (Wang, Naghavi, Allen, Barber, Carter, Casey, Charlson, Chen, Coates, Coggeshall, Dandona, Dicker, Erskine, Ferrari, Fitzmaurice, Foreman, Forouzanfar, Fraser, Fullman, Goldberg, Graetz, Haagsma, Hay, Huynh, Johnson, Kassebaum, Kulikoff, Kutz, Kyu, Larson, Leung, Lim, Lind, Lozano, Marquez, Mikesell, Mokdad, Mooney, Nguyen, Nsoesie, Pigott, Pinho, Roth, Sandar, Silpakit, Sligar, Sorensen, Stanaway, Steiner, Teeple, Thomas, Troeger, VanderZanden, Vollset, Wanga, Whiteford, Wolock, Zoeckler, Achoki, Afshin, Alexander, Anderson, Bell, Biryukov, Blore, Brown, Brown, Cercy, Chew, Cohen, Daoud, Dossou, Estep, Flaxman, Friedman, Frostad, Godwin, Hancock, Kemmer, Khalil, Liu, Masiye, Millear, Mirarefin, Misganaw, Moradi-Lakeh, Morgan, Ng, Pain, Quame-Amaglo, Rao, Reitsma, Shackelford, Sur, Wagner, Vos, Lopez, Murray) Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, United States (Ellenbogen) Harborview/UW Medicine, United States (Mock, Quistberg) Harborview Injury Prevention and Research Center, United States (Quistberg) Department of Anesthesiology & Pain Medicine, United States (Anderson, Blosser, Futran, Heckbert, Jensen, Montine, Tirschwell, Watkins) University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States (Bhutta) Centre of Excellence in Women and Child Health, Pakistan (Nisar) Aga Khan University, Karachi, Pakistan (Bhutta, Akseer) Centre for Global Child Health, The Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto, ON, Canada (Charlson, Erskine, Ferrari, Leung, Whiteford, Alam, Knibbs, Hailu, Melaku, Deribe, de Jager, Kawakami, Jahanmehr) School of Public Health, Australia (Lalloo) School of Dentistry, Australia (Gouda, McGrath) University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD, Australia (Charlson, Erskine, Leung, Whiteford) Queensland Centre for Mental Health Research, Brisbane, QLD, Australia (Jeemon) Centre for Control of Chronic Conditions, India (Dandona, Dandona, Kumar) Public Health Foundation of India, New Delhi, India (Gething) Department of Zoology, United Kingdom (Cooper) NIHR Musculoskeletal Biomedical Research Centre, United Kingdom (Darby) Clinical Trial Service Unit, United Kingdom (Deribew) Nuffield Department of Medicine, United Kingdom (Hay) Oxford Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, United Kingdom (Ali, Bennett, Jha, Rahimi) University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom (Haagsma) Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, Netherlands (Haagsma) University Medical Center, Rotterdam, Netherlands (Kinfu) Centre for Research & Action in Public Health, Faculty of Health, University of Canberra, Canberra, ACT, Australia (Larson, Furst) Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, United Kingdom (Faghmous, Langan, McKee, Murthy, Pearce, Roberts) London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom (Lozano, Campos-Nonato, Campuzano, Gomez-Dantes, Heredia-Pi, Mejia-Rodriguez, Montanez Hernandez, Montero, Rios Blancas, Servan-Mori, Villalpando) National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca, Mexico (Duan, Liu, Wang, Ye) National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, China (Liang, Yu) Chinese Center for Disease Control, Beijing, China (Mensah) Center for Translation Research and Implementation Science, National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, United States (Salomon) Department of Global Health and Population, United States (Thorne-Lyman) Department of Nutrition, United States (Campos-Nonato, Ajala, Barnighausen, Ding, Farvid, Wagner) Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health, United States (James) Department of Epidemiology, Channing Division of Network Medicine, United States (James) Brigham & Women's Hospital, United States (Osman, Shrime) Harvard Medical School, United States (Fitchett) Harvard University, Boston, MA, United States (Vollset, Knudsen) Centre for Disease Burden, Norway (Ellingsen, Krog, Savic) Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway (Vollset, Knudsen) Department of Global Public Health and Primary Care, Norway (Hailu, Norheim) University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway (Abate, Gebrehiwot, Gebremedhin) Jimma University, Jimma, Ethiopia (Abbafati) La Sapienza, University of Rome, Rome, Italy (Abbas) Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, United States (Abd-Allah) Department of Neurology, Cairo University, Cairo, Egypt (Abera) School of Public Health, College of Health Sciences, Ethiopia (Tesfay) College of Health Sciences, Ethiopia (Abyu, Aregay, Betsu, Gebru, Hailu, Yalew, Yebyo) Mekelle University, Mekelle, Ethiopia (Abera) Kilte Awlaelo-Health and Demographic Surveillance Site, Mekelle, Ethiopia (Abera) Food Security and Institute for Biological Chemistry and Nutrition, University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany (Abreu, Franca) Federal University of Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil (Abu-Raddad) Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medical College in Qatar, Doha, Qatar (Adelekan) Public Health Promotion Alliance, Osogbo, Nigeria (Adelekan, Akinyemi, Ojelabi) University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria (Ademi, Furst) University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland (Azzopardi) Department of Paediatrics, Australia (Cowie, Gibney, MacLachlan) The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Australia (Meretoja) Department of Medicine, Australia (Azzopardi, Alam, Borschmann, Colquhoun, Patton, Weintraub) Murdoch Childrens Research Institute, Australia (Szoeke) Institute of Health and Ageing, Australia (Vijayakumar) Center for Youth Mental Health, Australia (Lopez) Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, Australia (Ademi, Alam, Borschmann, Colquhoun, Weintraub, Bohensky, Taylor, Wijeratne) The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia (Adou) Association Ivoirienne pour le Bien-Etre Familial, Abidjan, Cote D'Ivoire (Adsuar) University of Extremadura, Caceres, Spain (Afanvi) Direction du District Sanitaire de Haho, Notse, Togo (Afanvi) Faculte des Sciences de Sante, Universite de Lome, Lome, Togo (Agardh) Institution of Public Health Sciences, Stockholm, Sweden (Akseer, Rehm) Dalla Lana School of Public Health, Canada (Badawi) Department of Nutritional Sciences, Faculty of Medicine, Canada (Lindsay) Institute of Health Policy, Management and Evaluation, Canada (Popova) Centre for Addiction and Mental Health, Canada (Agarwal) University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada (Agarwal) McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada (Agrawal) CSIR Institute of Genomics and Integrative Biology, Delhi, India (Agrawal) Department of Internal Medicine, United States (Hotez) Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, United States (Ahmad) Department of Clinical Sciences Lund, Orthopedics, Clinical Epidemiology Unit, Sweden (Norrving) Skane University Hospital, Department of Clinical Sciences Lund, Sweden (Ahmad Kiadaliri) Lund University, Lund, Sweden (Ahmad Kiadaliri) Health Services Management Research Center, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran, Islamic Republic of (Ajala) University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, McKeesport, PA, United States (Akanda) University of Rhode Island, Kingston, RI, United States (Akinyemi) Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, United Kingdom (Akinyemiju) Department of Epidemiology, United States (Schwebel, Singh) University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, AL, Iraq (Al Lami) Baghdad College of Medicine, Baghdad, Iraq (Alabed) University of Sheffield, Sheffield, United Kingdom (Al-Aly) Washington University in Saint Louis, St Louis, MO, Australia (Driscoll) Sydney School of Public Health, The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia (Alam, Kemp, Leigh, Mekonnen) The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia (Alam) Queensland Health, Herston, QLD, Australia (Alasfoor) Ministry of Health, Al Khuwair, Oman (Aldhahri, Altirkawi) King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia (Terkawi) Department of Anesthesiology, Saudi Arabia (Aldhahri) King Fahad Medical City, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia (Aldridge) Centre for Public Health Data Science, Institute of Health Informatics, United Kingdom (Aldridge, Banerjee) Farr Institute of Health Informatics Research, United Kingdom (Aldridge) Institute for Global Health, United Kingdom (Furst, Tillmann, Amini) Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, United Kingdom (Alegretti) University College London, London, United Kingdom (Alegretti) Department of Preventive and Social Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Uruguay (Melaku, Aleman, Amare, Sheth, Kwan) School of Medicine, Uruguay (Cavalleri, Barac, Massano) Faculty of Medicine, Uruguay (Colistro) University of the Republic, Montevideo, Uruguay (Alemu) Debre Markos University, Debre Markos, Ethiopia (Alhabib) King Abdullah Bin Abdulaziz University Hospital, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia (Alkerwi) Luxembourg Institute of Health (LIH), Strassen, Luxembourg (Alla) School of Public Health, University of Lorraine, Nancy, France (Allebeck) Department of Public Health Sciences, Sweden (Carrero) Department of Clinical Science, Intervention and Technology, Sweden (Fereshtehnejad) Department of Neurobiology, Care Sciences and Society (NVS), Sweden (Weiderpass) Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Sweden (Havmoeller) Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden (Al-Raddadi) Ministry of Health, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia (Alsharif) Charite Universitatsmedizin, Berlin, Germany (Alvarez Martin) Spanish Observatory on Drugs, Government Delegation for the National Plan on Drugs, Ministry of Health, Social Policy and Equality, Madrid, Spain (Alvis-Guzman) Universidad de Cartagena, Cartagena de Indias, Colombia (Ciobanu, Tessema) University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia (Amare) College of Medicine and Health Sciences, Bahir Dar University, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia (Amegah, Kudom) University of Cape Coast, Cape Coast, Ghana (Ameh) National Hospital, Abuja, Nigeria (Amini) Environmental Health Research Center, Kurdistan University of Medical Sciences, Sanandaj, Iran, Islamic Republic of (Karema) Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland (Ammar, Harb) Ministry of Public Health, Beirut, Lebanon (Amrock) Oregon Health & Science University, Portland, OR, United States (Andersen) Center for Sensory-Motor Interaction, Department of Health Science and Technology, Faculty of Medicine, Aalborg University, Aalborg, Denmark (Antonio) Department of Health Policy and Administration, College of Public Health, Philippines (Faraon) College of 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[Ovid has truncated this field to avoid Excel character limitations] | Issue Date: | 12-Nov-2016 | Copyright year: | 2016 | Publisher: | Lancet Publishing Group (E-mail: cususerv@lancet.com) Lancet Publishing Group |
Place of publication: | United Kingdom | Publication information: | The Lancet. 388 (10053) (pp 1459-1544), 2016. Date of Publication: 08 Oct 2016. | Journal: | The Lancet | Abstract: | Background Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures. Methods We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). Findings Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61.7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61.4-61.9) in 1980 to 71.8 years (71.5-72.2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11.3 years (3.7-17.4), to 62.6 years (56.5-70.2). Total deaths increased by 4.1% (2.6-5.6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55.8 million (54.9 million to 56.6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17.0% (15.8-18.1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14.1% (12.6-16.0) to 39.8 million (39.2 million to 40.5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13.1% (11.9-14.3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42.1%, 39.1-44.6), malaria (43.1%, 34.7-51.8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29.8%, 24.8-34.9), and maternal disorders (29.1%, 19.3-37.1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death. Interpretation At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY license | DOI: | http://monash.idm.oclc.org/login?url=http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736%2816%2931012-1 | PubMed URL: | 27733281 [http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/?term=27733281] | ISSN: | 0140-6736 | URI: | https://repository.monashhealth.org/monashhealthjspui/handle/1/27393 | Type: | Article |
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